Inspired by Peter Jakobsen (2022)

By Belarusian Liberation Army

Published on August 30, 2024

Strategist Major General Mick Ryan (2024), an authority in the field of modern strategy, correctly asserts that Russia has already achieved its strategic goal in Belarus. The subjugation of this East European country was achieved through a combination of occupation and political accommodation.

Indeed, throughout its existence, the personalist authoritarian regime of Lukashenko in Belarus has been supported by Russia. The support primarily focused on economics and finance. Political and diplomatic support was used less frequently, for example, during the crises of 1995-1996 and during campaigns to legitimize “election” results. In 2020, Russia provided military support to the usurper Lukashenko by relocating a group of Russian National Guards to the Belarusian border, as the protest situation, which had spread throughout the country, threatened to spiral out of control.

Since August 2020, and continuing to this day, the Lukashenko regime remains highly dependent on military support, both within the Belarusian borders and from Russian territory. Lukashenko still maintains effective control over Belarus exclusively through repression, relying on his security forces. But it’s important to note that while the KGB and the Ministry of Internal Affairs, as the main repressive apparatuses, remain sufficiently loyal to Lukashenko, the same cannot be said about the Belarusian army. The Belarusian armed forces have always been neglected by Lukashenko and, compared to other security structures in Belarus, were funded on a residual basis.

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