All posts by infogeostrategy@gmail.com

The splendors and miseries of Lieutenant Colonel Putin in Eastern Europe-2 and elsewhere (part 3)

Elites, Geopolitics, Putin, Strategy, , , ,

Based on Hieronymus Bosch. Death and the Miser [Fragment], c. 1490

By Alexander Perepechko

Published on January 24, 2021

In parts 1 and 2 of this paper, we explored a few important features of Russian revisionism in Eastern Europe-2 (Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine).

Irredentism and other manifestations of the Russian world are, above all, a façade of the personal interests of Vladimir Putin and his group. Since the legal infrastructure of private property rights and security of a person do not have sufficient basis in Russia, this cabal managed to restore Russia’s historical patrimonialist system and adjust it to the era of globalization. Globalization allows Russia’s elites to maximize their gains by keeping domestic markets open for their predation while minimizing their own personal risk by depositing profits in secure offshore accounts.

Under the Putin regime a new breed of globally minded criminal businessmen and politicians emerged and took center stage in the Russian Federation. This regime is about the kleptocracy where thieves rule. It is also about the adhocracy because in reality the elite in this regime is defined by its service to the needs of the Kremlin rather than by any specific institutional or social identity.

Relations between strategy, policy, and the personal interests of Putin’s siloviki – politicians from the security and military services who came into power – look unusual for a westerner. Putin and his strongmen see their personal interests as state interests and routinely resort to the aid of the state apparatus to defend these interests. We have the unfortunate case in which 1) military strategy is intended to defend the personal interests of Putin and his circle as state interests and 2) politics, including the politics of the Russian world, is subordinated to this strategy. In other words, policy is subordinated to strategy and strategy serves the personal interests of Putin and his group.

Also, some special circumstances have led to the regrettable situation when organized crime has been weaponized and access to information has been monetized in Russia.

Putin’s career path greatly aggravates this situation. It seems as though Lieutenant Colonel Putin is a protégé of the powerful “caste” of the Colonel Generals and a creature of the world of criminal businessmen and politicians. One cannot exclude that this caste looks at him as a “custodian” of their offshore banking accounts, real estate, and businesses in the West and elsewhere.

Putin and almost all members of his inner circle have records of service in the KGB and its successors. It is not surprising that active measures (also called subversion, “hybrid warfare,” hostile measures, or sharp power) are used by Russia as a policy instrument to influence and now and then control foreign states using non-kinetic and sometimes kinetic methods.

Do Putin’s active measures have historical antecedents? The late Soviet period gives us some clues.

Continue reading The splendors and miseries of Lieutenant Colonel Putin in Eastern Europe-2 and elsewhere (part 3) →

Deep crisis in Belarus: Stalemate and three crucial questions (Analytical summary)

Belarus, Elites, Revolution, , , ,
[The Belarusian Revolution] [image]. (n.d.). [Photo].

[The Belarusian Revolution] [image]. (n.d.). [Photo].

By Alexander Perepechko, Dmitry Shchigelsky, Ihar Tyshkevich, Youras Ziankovich

SEATTLE – NEW YORK – KYIV – HUSTON

Published on December 26, 2020

INTRODUCTION

The political confrontation in Belarus has reached a stalemate. Neither of the two opposing sides can win in the short-term or long-term. Neither of these side is willing to calmly discuss key issues which the country will face after the confrontation ends.

This situation pushed us to create a virtual platform where participants can discuss the events, processes, and logic of the Belarusian crisis. Based on these discussions, forecasts of future developments in this country will possibly be made. For a start, we offer here an analytical summary of our first discussion.

The goal of this publication is to start outlining the area for future debates.

We hope to include new participants, topics, and questions. We also intend to publish summaries of future discussions. With any luck, political actors would use them as inputs for decision-making…

Continue reading Deep crisis in Belarus: Stalemate and three crucial questions (Analytical summary) →

The splendors and miseries of Lieutenant Colonel Putin in Eastern Europe-2 and elsewhere (part 2)

Belarus, Elites, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Geopolitics, Putin, Russia, Strategy, Tactics, , , , , ,
[Man with tattoo] [image]. (n.d.). [Drawing].

By Alexander Perepechko

Published on March 16, 2019

In part 1 of this research essay we discussed how geography, irredentism, and patrimonialism may elucidate Russia’s aggressive behavior in Eastern Europe-2 (Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine).

The political asymmetry in the Black Sea, where the maritime NATO has been present while continental Russia is almost absent, has been the important geostrategic rationale behind Russia’s military power projection in Transnistria (Moldova), Abkhazia and South Ossetia (Georgia), and Crimea and eastern Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (Ukraine).

Similar political asymmetry takes place in the Baltic Sea. To break this asymmetry, Russia keeps and expands its military presence in the Kaliningrad exclave and in landlocked Belarus. And here is what might happen in the future. Following a missile barrage, Russian troops from Kaliningrad advance towards Belarus through the Suwalki Gap and cut the Baltic States off from the rest of the NATO countries. As a result, the landward hegemon Russia receives land access to its Baltic Sea exclave and the Baltic States turn into NATO’s exclave!

Continue reading The splendors and miseries of Lieutenant Colonel Putin in Eastern Europe-2 and elsewhere (part 2) →

The splendors and miseries of Lieutenant Colonel Putin in Eastern Europe-2 and elsewhere (part 1)

Belarus, Elites, Geopolitics, Putin, Russia, Strategy, , , , , , ,

Alexander Perepechko. Force, crime, and strategy.

by Alexander Perepechko

Published on November 27, 2018

Geography and strategy. Why the Eastern Europe-2?

In a series of papers (parts 1, part 2 and part 3) in Russian for the leading Belarusian newspaper Naviny, I analyzed in detail the current geostrategic situation in the Eastern Europe-2 (Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine), a large macro-region located between the NATO and Russian Federation (RF). I was delighted that these publications were followed by a discussion, often heated, in which a variety of opinions – including my own – were expressed. I assumed at that time that my modest contribution to the geostrategic analysis of the Eastern Europe-2 was over.

While keeping an eye on that part of the world, I started a project on health care, a top issue for American voters in the 2018 intermediate elections. The comparative analysis of American and other developed countries health care systems appeared at www.geostrategy.info.

But soon it became clear that the Eastern European topic required special attention again. Hostile-aggressive actions of the regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin against the West escalated. He even threatened to use modernized nuclear weapons and new missiles in the future war.
Continue reading The splendors and miseries of Lieutenant Colonel Putin in Eastern Europe-2 and elsewhere (part 1) →

Medicine Jar

Elites, Strategy, Tactics,

Alexander Perepechko. Comfortably numb world

by Alexander Perepechko

Published on May 8, 2017

In a previous paper, I explored Kondratiev waves. These waves (sometimes called K-waves or cycles) show that economic and social development is primarily determined by long periodic cycles characterized by technological innovations in specific economic/industrial areas (Kondratieff, 2014) (Figure 28). A cycle lasts about 40-60 years. These long cycles fulfill a mostly strategic role: leaders who identify the current Kondratiev wave early are able to take the lead in economic and social development and benefit the most from its impetus.

I found that the recent information technology (IT) long wave – the 5th Kondratiev cycle – has faded, although not ended yet. IT was and still is a source of power for the 5th cycle. While the 5th wave is on the decline, the 6th Kondratiev wave has started. Psychosocial health (or health care) is the growth vehicle of the new K-wave. The health care can be defined as health in a holistic sense – physical, biological, psychological, and mental health (Nefiodow & Nefiodow, 2015: 47, 57).

I also conjectured that America is losing its lead in the development of the psychosocial health sector to Europe, Japan, and China. Does this mean that American elites pay little attention to health care as the new engine of economic growth?

Indeed many politicians and media in America are highly skilled in the art of manufacturing and presenting biased information about health care. This unfortunate fact must not prevent us from an effort to find some truth about the matter. When reforms pertaining to health legislation stall, independent social science expertise in this area is in urgent need.

Compared to the rest of the world, how is the health industry doing in America?
Continue reading Medicine Jar →

Acquisition, Processing and Use of Russia’s Raion/Municipality-level Spatial Data: Counter-mapping for Russia in Seattle, 2000-2004

Geographic Information Systems (GIS), , , , , , , , , ,

Alexander Perepechko. The ghost of Suzzallo

By Alexander Perepechko and Dmitry Sharkov

Published on August 13, 2017

Abstract: In this paper, we explore how a counter-mapping framework can contribute to developing a freely accessible worldwide geographic information (GI) service for Russia, a country with a legacy of classified (closed and semi-closed) information systems. The Russian Federation Digital Data (RFDD) project and the Central Eurasian Interactive Atlas (CEIA) were the major products of these efforts. This article describes the volunteered geographic information (VGI) methods which were used to create these products. We portray how in 1994-2004 volunteers and paid part-time citizen science at the University of Washington and its consortial partners (the Evergreen State College and South Seattle Community College) obtained geographic data from Russia, developed GIS databases in the United States using appropriate hardware and software, assured the quality of these data and created a clearinghouse and geoportal for delivery and use of the dataset. A focus on error detection to improve data quality was crucial for this project. The consortium was organized in 2000 to promote the creation of a GIS database on Russia and dissemination and use of these datasets using the Web. Unfortunately, the project has failed to publish the dataset beyond the Universities’ Consortium. CEIA is for limited use and serves as a curricular and research focus of Russian Studies programs in the Universities’ Consortium.

Keywords: Central Eurasian Interactive Atlas (CEIA), Clearinghouse, Counter-mapping, Data quality, Database, Geographic information (GI), Geographic information service, Geoportal, Russia, National spatial data infrastructure (NSDI), Russian Federation Digital Data (RFDD), Data quality, Universities’ Consortium Geographic Information Service (UC GI Service), Volunteered geographic information (VGI).

We acknowledge support for portions of this article provided by U.S. Department of Education Title VI Program for Technological Innovation and Cooperation for Foreign Information Access (TICFIA) Award Number P337A990006-01, the Suzzallo Libraries at the University of Washington, and the IFS Family Foundation. We are thankful to Michael Goodchild, Nicholas Chrisman, Massimo Craglia, and Ellen O’Meara for valuable suggestions on earlier drafts of this paper.
Continue reading Acquisition, Processing and Use of Russia’s Raion/Municipality-level Spatial Data: Counter-mapping for Russia in Seattle, 2000-2004 →

Continuity and change in Russia’s occidentalist and fundamentalist vote in electoral geography 1917-1995

Elites, Geopolitics, Strategy, Tactics, , , , , , ,

Alexander Perepechko. Continuity…

They will say, “Where is the promise of his coming? For ever since the fathers fell asleep, all things are continuing as they were from the beginning of creation.” 2 Peter 2:4

By Alexander Perepechko

Craig ZumBrunnen

Vladimir A. Kolossov

Ellen S. O’Meara

Published on May 12, 2017

Abstract: This research empirically supports the hypothesis that in post-Soviet Russia, Soviet modernization engendered support for occidentalist parties, while pre-Revolutionary political regionalism engendered support for fundamentalist parties. Soviet development predicts “successful” modernization and change in occidentalist voting in (1) the continental Russian core, (2) early-modernized territories and (3) commercial export centers in the maritime European North and maritime European South, but does not predict continuity in occidentalist voting in newly industrialized regions. The political space of failed modernization and continuity in traditionalist voting includes the countryside and many towns, especially in the more recently urbanized territories and western border regions.

Keywords: Russia; Modernization; Political Culture; Election; Constituent Assembly; Sixth Duma; GIS; Probit.

We acknowledge support for portions of this article provided by U.S. Department of Education Title VI Program for Technological Innovation and Cooperation for Foreign Information Access (TICFIA) Award Number P337A990006-01, the Suzzallo Libraries at the University of Washington, and the IFS Family Foundation. We would like to thank Nicholas Chrisman, Richard Morrill, and Timothy Nyerges for valuable comments on the early drafts of this article.  We acknowledge Béatrice von Hirschhausen and Ellen O’Meara for conversations and encouragement. Our special thanks to Violette Rey for important comments on a later draft.
Continue reading Continuity and change in Russia’s occidentalist and fundamentalist vote in electoral geography 1917-1995 →

The enigma of Donald Trump (part 3)

Elites, Strategy, , , ,

Alexander Perepechko. De-GLOBolshevization?

By Alexander Perepechko

Published on April 30, 2017

The geography of risks. The votes for Donald Trump

Risks, identified, measured, and analyzed in parts 1 and 2 of this research, can be associated with a few maps from the 2016 presidential election.

A. The social risks defined by “group grievance” and “refugees and IDPs” are – at least to some degree – real in the United States. These risks are perceived as acute ontological insecurity by the majority of whites: most whites, even the majority of college graduated whites (49%), voted for Donald Trump (Figure 34). During his emotional – postmodernist! – campaign, the charismatic Trump raised the fear level, played up humiliation, and articulated a need for the great leader. Trump’s nativist (some incorrectly use the term “nationalist”) (see Leahy, 2015) perspective and rhetoric awakened dormant features of universal human nature in Middle America. Machiavellian intelligence (in a time of resource scarcity or crisis a “lion” can terrify the “wolves”) became a powerful factor in the electoral behavior of these voters.
Continue reading The enigma of Donald Trump (part 3) →

The enigma of Donald Trump (part 2)

Elites, Strategy, , , , ,

Alexander Perepechko. GLOBolshevization

By Alexander Perepechko

Published on March 11, 2017

In the part 1 of this paper we discussed the Machiavellian intelligence approach in elitology. According to this theory, when we must act under uncertainty (a state of mind) with incomplete information about risks (the world is almost out of control) our “non-logical” conduct follows from a particular belief about the world in conjunction with a particular sentiment, desire or psychic state. This conduct is guided by two permanent sets of assumptions associated with two particular ways of life shaped by evolution. The two specific cultural and personological patterns, developed over time to help us withstand different risks during upswings and downswings of socio-economic and political development, influence our experiences of uncertainty into one of two fixed ways. In a competitive individualist environment a “fox” can discover snares. In a time of resource scarcity or crisis a “lion” can terrify the wolves.

We already learned (see figure 32) that a new Pareto long elite cycle started in 2008. It seemed as though the upswing of this new elite cycle could have become more and more synchronized with the new psychosocial health economic cycle (and with the fading IT long economic cycle) in the American economy. Unfortunately, during Obama’s presidency the governing elite was overrun by individuals with the skills and inclination to utilize legal and financial means and ideological persuasion. In Pareto’s language, these skills and proclivities are a deceitful and cunning craft. Overrun by these “foxes,” the governing elite lost its political domination in the 2016 presidential election: the upswing of the new elite cycle, which began in 2008, took a downturn in 2016. The new psychosocial health economic cycle (and the fading IT long economic cycle) and the downswing of the Pareto long elite cycle are asynchronous again…

As we know, downswings are related to an increase in in-group altruism as well as prejudice and suspicion toward out-groups (“others”). During periods of resource scarcity or crisis, risks to social solidarity dominate. This is a good time for Pareto’s “lion,” which can describe the conservative authoritarian personality. We pointed at increasing risks in socio-economic development, at the imbalance in elite circulation, and at political Balkanization as important threats which played to the hands of Donald Trump. We also emphasized that Trump skillfully used uncertainty, pertaining to postmodernist media, social networks, and expert knowledge. He succeeded in presenting himself as an intense realist preoccupied with objective reality and able to restore foundational principles and to develop a strategy for the United States.
Continue reading The enigma of Donald Trump (part 2) →

The enigma of Donald Trump (part 1)

Elites, Strategy, , , , ,

45/2016. Cartogram by Mark Newman

By Alexander Perepechko

Published on February 4, 2017

After the 1948 presidential election in the United States, the Chicago Daily Tribune ran with the headline “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Actually, Harry Truman beat the Republican Thomas Dewey. A copy fell into Truman’s hands and he simply smiled at the mistake because the Republican-supporting Chicago Daily Tribune had once referred to him as a nincompoop (Greenslade, 2016). Since that time electoral forecasts have improved dramatically: social scientists and political technologists can now forecast election results with more than 95% certainty. But in 2016 history repeats itself. Mass media, social networks, academics, experts, and analysts in the United States and abroad almost unanimously forecasted the victory of Hillary Clinton in the presidential election. The Democratic presidential nominee signed her autograph on the Newsweek “Madam President” commemorative magazine backstage after a campaign rally on November 7, 2016 in Pittsburgh. 125,000 copies of this magazine are for sale on eBay, Amazon, and similar commercial websites and can be purchased – if you are lucky – for 80-100 American dollars.

The vast majority of predictions failed miserably. American voters and the Electoral College worked against the liberal establishment candidate Hillary Clinton. She was sponsored by Wall Street, part of the IT sector, and some special interests and globalist institutions. Today these same organizations and individuals predict major trouble in the United States because Donald Trump won the election.

Indeed, a few polls and analysts anticipated the victory of Donald Trump, and the independent American filmmaker and writer Michael Moore was one of them. After the election, Moore (2016) acknowledged: “Fire all pundits, predictors, pollsters and anyone else in the media who had a narrative they wouldn’t let go of and refused to listen to or acknowledge what was really going on. Those same bloviators will now tell us we must “heal the divide” and “come together.” They will pull more hooey like that out of their ass in the days to come. Turn them off.” In fact, only two polls consistently showed Trump in the lead—the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times and the IBD/TIPP tracking polls.
Continue reading The enigma of Donald Trump (part 1) →