By Alexander Perepechko

Published on October 28, 2016

In part 1 of this paper, we realized that public authority in the United States has likely been hijacked by special interests. The predominant part of the American elite stubbornly defends the dysfunctional status quo at its own peril. In a world of fundamental uncertainty, risks, and destabilizing forces, neither presidential candidate has formulated a strategy to implement his or her vision for America’s future. In this situation, we conjectured that the persistence of long wave-like cycles in economics and elites on the global and national scale might shed light on the current presidential election in the United States.

Long cycles fulfill a mostly strategic goal. Leaders who identify the current Kondratiev wave (K-wave) and current Pareto elite cycle are able to take the lead in economic and social development and to avoid revolutionary transformation of society…

What are the relationships between the current K-wave and current Pareto elite cycle in America? How might these relationships impact the current state and future development of the United States? Does the appeal to emotion of voters, negative campaigning, mutual accusation, and rivalries between political parties and groups echo the deeply troubled long wave-like tendencies in economics and elites in America? Perhaps troubled so badly that the presidential candidates have not spoken about their strategies at all…
Continue reading Beyond Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. American elites through the lens of Kondratiev and Pareto long cycles (part 2) →

By Alexander Perepechko

Published on October 16, 2016

Multiple analysts of the current presidential candidates in the United States like to say that our founding fathers are turning over in their graves. Without a doubt, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are extremely controversial candidates. Regretfully, the appeal to emotions of voters, negative campaigning, mutual accusation, and hassles between political parties and groups have gained the upper hand in this election. This makes American voters confused and angry. Citizens become less and less certain about the reality in which they live and more and more frightened about the future of this world.

It has become harder for a social scientist to foresee consequences of elections and to produce electoral forecasts. In this world of fundamental uncertainty, risks, and destabilizing forces (Bernard et al, 2013), it is next to impossible to predict when and why critically important socio-economic and political events might happen and how these events might be interconnected. Empirically detecting the mechanisms of societal change, and thereby calibrating policy to the real economy, is difficult. In this situation, the persistence of long wave-like tendencies in economics and elites on the global and macro-regional scale, allows one to shed light on the current presidential election in the United States.
Continue reading Beyond Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. American elites through the lens of Kondratiev and Pareto long cycles (part 1) →