By Alexander Perepechko

Published on March 7, 2016

From Organized Crime to Low Intensity Conflict? (continued)

In the period of Late Modernity, or even postmodernity, the clausewitzian trinity is still popular among American military-political leaders. In his seminal The Rise and Decline of the State, Israeli strategist Van Creveld summed up results of this approach over the last half-century for developed countries: “From France to the United States, there has scarcely been one “advanced” government in Europe and North America whose armed forces have not suffered defeat at the hands of underequipped, ill-trained, ill-organized, often even ill-clad, underfed, and illiterate freedom fighters or guerillas or terrorists; briefly, by men – and, often, women – who were short on everything except high courage and the determination to endure peacekeeping operations, and whatever other types of operations that were dreamt up by their masters” (2009: 395).

In two previous research essays we discovered that international jihadists find operational ground across the world by sponging off local leaders (often Salafists) and criminal groups. When I was working on this paper, new facts proved this finding.

Supported by the Russian Air Force, Syrian (also, Iranian and Lebanese) governmental ground troops squeezed out IS military units and moderate Syrian groups in several strategically important locations and significantly expanded a zone controlled by Damascus (Van Creveld, 2015). The area under ISIS control was reduced by one-third (Bidder et al, 2016). With Russia’s help, the regime of Assad might manage to reinstate control over all territories of the Syrian state. But even this development would not save the dictator from a demographic impasse. Assad understands that he and his Alawite minority cannot rule Syria without major changes. His first option is democratic elections and political power sharing mechanisms. The second option is tyrannical: Assad might use a depopulation strategy against Sunnis. In order to change the country’s demographics and create a religiously and ethnically homogenous Syria, the dictator might utilize a policy of cleansing through deportation, displacement, and killing of the Sunni population. Local Sunni communities that have supported anti-Assad fighters probably would be targeted first.
Continue reading Securitization of post-heroic America. From organized crime to low intensity conflict and from the liberal state to the “post-modern” state? (part 4) →