Tag Archives: #geostrategy

The Strategic Metamorphosis of Belarus: From Launchpad to Buffer Zone

June 16, 2026Eastern Europe & Russia, Military Posture & Regional Security, Strategic Analysis#AsymmetricWarfare, #Belarus, #DroneLogistics, #geostrategy, #Lukashenko, #MilitaryProtectorate, #MultipolarHedging, #SanctionsArbitrageinfogeostrategy@gmail.com

The 1,084-Kilometer Frontier: The heavily fortified and highly vulnerable border space where the tactical realities of drone warfare intersect with Minsk’s neutral buffer zone rhetoric.. Source: Chris McGrath / Getty Images

By Alexander Perepechko

Published on June 16, 2026

Abstract: This paper evaluates the structural shift in the security posture of the Republic of Belarus from an aggressive forward launchpad for Russian forces to a highly vulnerable military protectorate under severe existential strain. Driven by asymmetric Ukrainian deep-strike drone capabilities, targeted back-channel kinetic ultimatums from Western intelligence, and strict stability mandates from Beijing, the Lukashenko regime is attempting a high-stakes, multi-directional hedging strategy. By analyzing recent diplomatic maneuvers and rhetorical capitulations to Kyiv, this study charts Minsk’s desperate effort to manufacture a multipolar “neutral buffer zone” persona as an essential architecture for regime survival.

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The splendors and miseries of Lieutenant Colonel Putin in Eastern Europe-2 and elsewhere (part 2)

March 16, 2019Belarus, Elites, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Geopolitics, Putin, Russia, Strategy, Tactics#Belarus, #elites, #geopolitics, #geostrategy, #Putin, #Russia, #strategyinfogeostrategy@gmail.com

[Man with tattoo] [image]. (n.d.). [Drawing].

By Alexander Perepechko

Published on March 16, 2019

In part 1 of this research essay we discussed how geography, irredentism, and patrimonialism may elucidate Russia’s aggressive behavior in Eastern Europe-2 (Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine).

The political asymmetry in the Black Sea, where the maritime NATO has been present while continental Russia is almost absent, has been the important geostrategic rationale behind Russia’s military power projection in Transnistria (Moldova), Abkhazia and South Ossetia (Georgia), and Crimea and eastern Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (Ukraine).

Similar political asymmetry takes place in the Baltic Sea. To break this asymmetry, Russia keeps and expands its military presence in the Kaliningrad exclave and in landlocked Belarus. And here is what might happen in the future. Following a missile barrage, Russian troops from Kaliningrad advance towards Belarus through the Suwalki Gap and cut the Baltic States off from the rest of the NATO countries. As a result, the landward hegemon Russia receives land access to its Baltic Sea exclave and the Baltic States turn into NATO’s exclave!

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The splendors and miseries of Lieutenant Colonel Putin in Eastern Europe-2 and elsewhere (part 1)

November 27, 2018Belarus, Elites, Geopolitics, Putin, Russia, Strategy#Belarus, #elites, #geopolitics, #geostrategy, #Putin, #Russia, #strategy, #Ukraineinfogeostrategy@gmail.com

Alexander Perepechko. Force, crime, and strategy.

by Alexander Perepechko

Published on November 27, 2018

Geography and strategy. Why the Eastern Europe-2?

In a series of papers (parts 1, part 2 and part 3) in Russian for the leading Belarusian newspaper Naviny, I analyzed in detail the current geostrategic situation in the Eastern Europe-2 (Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine), a large macro-region located between the NATO and Russian Federation (RF). I was delighted that these publications were followed by a discussion, often heated, in which a variety of opinions – including my own – were expressed. I assumed at that time that my modest contribution to the geostrategic analysis of the Eastern Europe-2 was over.

While keeping an eye on that part of the world, I started a project on health care, a top issue for American voters in the 2018 intermediate elections. The comparative analysis of American and other developed countries health care systems appeared at www.geostrategy.info.

But soon it became clear that the Eastern European topic required special attention again. Hostile-aggressive actions of the regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin against the West escalated. He even threatened to use modernized nuclear weapons and new missiles in the future war.
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