By Alexander Perepechko
Published on January 9, 2026
How do wars persist when armies stall and sanctions bite? The answer lies not on the battlefield, but in energy flows, trade rerouting, and economic endurance. This flagship long-read dissects the U.S. National Security Strategy 2025 against the reality of Russia’s war economy, showing how Eurasian markets—not Western finance—now determine strategic survival. As oil and gas revenues shift from Europe to China and India, the conflict in Ukraine emerges as a continental political-economic war, testing whether American power can shape interdependence rather than simply weaponize it. Recent political and economic changes in Venezuela may soon add an additional layer to these dynamics, particularly regarding energy and commodity flows, potentially affecting U.S. strategic calculations in Eurasia.
Abstract
The U.S. National Security Strategy 2025 (NSS 2025) marks a decisive shift in how American power is conceived and exercised under conditions of prolonged great-power competition and deep economic interdependence (Posen, 2014). Rather than signaling retrenchment or a return to isolationism, the strategy reflects a hybrid recalibration centered on selective engagement, allied burden-sharing, and economic endurance. Drawing on evidence from global energy and commodity trade (CREA, 2025; Trading Economics, 2024a, 2024b), this article argues that Russia’s war against Ukraine—while militarily localized—has become a Eurasian political-economic conflict, sustained by continental market substitution and asymmetric interdependence. The analysis shows how contemporary wars are increasingly decided not by battlefield outcomes alone, but by the ability to shape, exploit, and withstand interdependent economic systems over time (Brooks & Wohlforth, 2016).
Keywords: U.S. National Security Strategy 2025; strategic endurance; weaponized interdependence; political economy of war; energy security; economic warfare; Eurasian markets; great power competition.